A completely different governor's race

Bell thinks that the organization the Democratic Party gives him statewide is a valuable asset that would require Strayhorn and Friedman to spend millions to duplicate. There is no runoff.

Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor, is trying to spread that message.

"That's what's really beginning to dawn on people: that this is a plurality election," Bell said at a press conference Monday ((3/20)) at Texas AFL-CIO state headquarters in Austin. "All the old math goes out the window."

In a battle for attention with two probable independent candidates- Comptroller Carole Strayhorn and Entertainer Kinky Friedman-Bell wants to convince voters he can win.

One well-connected lawyer told him he couldn't see why Bell is running, "since there's no way you can get to 50 percent."

He doesn't have to, Bell pointed out. Unlike the primary elections, it doesn't require a majority to win the general. Whoever gets the most votes wins. Even if, in this five-way race (there is a Libertarian: James Werner of Austin), the front-runner has just 22 percent.

That's unlikely. But Bell wants Democrats and independents to understand that if he can get the recent Democratic base of just under 40 percent, that could beat Republican Gov. Rick Perry.

Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 with just 43 percent of the popular vote nationwide Independent Ross Perot got almost 19 percent, leaving former Republican President George Bush just 38 percent, not enough to keep Clinton from easily winning an electoral college majority. Ponder this:

Say Bell gets the Democratic base vote of 37 percent. (Of course, if Carole or the Kinkster draw a significant vote away from the Democratic column, that might not happen.) Say Carole and Kinky get 25 percent between them. The Libertarian gets 2 percent. If that happened, Perry's left with 36 percent. Bell wins.

(Perry's folks, are thinking the same way the other direction: that he could win with 40 percent, or less, just as long as he is first.

Bell thinks that the organization the Democratic Party gives him statewide is a valuable asset that would require Strayhorn and Friedman to spend millions to duplicate.

And, Bell is hoping for a lot of help from the Democratic base. It was no accident that Bell had on stage with him retiring state Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos, state Reps. Eddie Rodriguez and Elliott Naishtat, and 25th District Senate nominee Kathleen "Kathi" Thomas, all of Austin. (Thomas opposes Republican Sen. Jeff Wentworth of San Antonio in the 60-plus percent Republican district that stretches from Austin to San Antonio.)

There were even two members of the non-partisan Austin city council there: Brewster McCracken and Lee Leffingwell, both active Democrats.

Bell wants to keep appearing with other Democratic elected officials and candidates, who have a personal interest in getting the largest possible party turnout. Not only do they want to get elected themselves, plus get rid of Perry, but theyd also like to see the benefits that would come with a Democrat back in the governor's office. In places like Dallas County, trending back Democratic direction-electing a sheriff and three district judges in 2004, and contesting every judgeship in this year's election-the local candidates have a personal interest in seeing as large a straight-ticket Democratic vote as possible. It could be coattails up: the getout the-vote efforts of the folks at the bottom of the ballot helps those at the top.

They also know if voters vote for Carole or the Kinkster, they might not get back to the Democratic column for down-ballot offices.

Bell hopes to take a page from former Republican Gov. Bill Clements upset victory in 1978. The Republicans then saw the party-building and fundraising value of a governor who can appoint members of state boards and commissions, and fill vacant judgeships.

Bell is pointing out that Strayhorn for much of the last two decades has been strongly against what lots of Democrats are for.

Bell said hes received $1 million in pledges since his strong primary victory. But even if he doesn't catch Strayhorn in fundraising, if she and Perry spend a considerable amount of their cash bashing each other, Bell could be the abovethe mudfight beneficiary.

It might not happen. But then again, with Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and other Republicans continually in the headlines, and an unpopular war in Iraq, it might.

Contact McNeely at dmcneely@austin.rr.com or 512/4582963.